Major Markets Lead Investment Sales Recovery

Although investment sales volume was down 12% from the prior year across the U.S. markets, the top ten cities still experienced positive sales momentum. In these markets, sales volume increased by 20% across multifamily, office, retail, and land sales, with New York City leading the way with a 70% year-over-year increase. These markets accounted for a third of U.S. sales volume in 2024.

A strengthening return to office undoubtedly played a major role in this trend. In the case of NYC, Avison Young’s Office Busyness Index, which tracks how busy office buildings are, showed a 75% return to office compared to 2019. NYC ranked among the top three cities, bested only by Miami and West Palm Beach. It is no surprise that Miami’s sales volume also surged by 70%. Other top cities that generated year-over-year sales increases of 20% or more include Atlanta, Charlotte, Denver, Fort Lauderdale, and Orlando. San Francisco and Washington, D.C., came close, with increases of 19% and 17%, respectively.

At the transaction level, the market saw a divergence between smaller and institutional deals. According to Green Street’s Sales Comps Database, there were $92.71 billion in trades ranging from $5 million to $25 million in 2024—up just 1.5%from $91.33 billion a year prior. By contrast, transaction volume for deals valued at or above $25 million surged 22.0%. Brokers attributed the slower growth in smaller deals to natural constraints within the private capital space, which inherently limit outsized expansion. The upshot: larger institutional deals continue to drive the market.

Still, both segments remain below their respective cyclical peaks. The smaller-sales segment sits 20.1% below its 2022 peak of $115.95 billion, while institutional sales, which totaled $261.33 billion in 2024, remain down 49.6% from their all-time peak of $517.54 billion in 2021.

A healthy office market helps drive a strong multifamily and retail market. If people are showing up to the office, they need places to live and shop nearby.  New York demonstrates this with tightening vacancy rates across the board, including office availability dropping to 17%, multifamily vacancy below 2%, and retail vacancy rates in some high-street corridors, such as Madison Avenue, falling into the single digits.

We can safely assume that the myth that cities are dead post-pandemic can be proven untrue. That’s not to say some major cities haven’t faced their share of challenges, such as natural disasters or crime, but overall, we have certainly seen primary markets outperform secondary and tertiary cities. Major cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco have also started to see capital flow back their way. Last quarter, Los Angeles had the highest CMBS debt origination for office properties, totaling $690 million, with San Francisco not far behind at $291 million.

In my new role as Head of U.S. Investment Sales, I will grow Avison Young’s investment sales presence in the top U.S. markets. NYC will continue to be a key focus, as we build on the momentum we have here, but we will continue to work with both existing and new clients to help them build strong, diversified real estate portfolios. As more opportunities in major markets present themselves, we will ensure they are accessible to interested buyers. For sellers, we will further expand our ability to market to buyers across the country and around the world.