Understanding Demand Drivers for CRE
There are plenty of anecdotes about people moving from New York to Miami. There is also no shortage of talk about companies leaving California for Texas. These potential trends would no doubt have implications for the real estate market, so it is important to qualify. When trying to answer, we always find it best to take a data driven approach. Further, there are several sources to consider.
Starting with population changes, especially post pandemic, we can look at Placer.ai’s data. There was certainly a massive outflow of people from New York post 2020 which was estimated at 372,000, but we can now see a huge reversal, as the metro area has only had a 2,065 net loss of population from 2020 – 2025. This is a fraction of the over 20 million people who live here. Most importantly, we now see population growth from 2024-2025 with an increase of 39,300 people.
Meanwhile Los Angeles and Chicago have yet to recover as their populations have dropped 321,812 and 252,973 people, respectively. That said, LA’s population decline has tapered off considerably with “only” losing 15,200 people last year, while Chicago saw an increase of 21,800 which is positive.
Whereas Miami, which saw a huge population gain from 2020 – 2025 of 141,241 people has now dropped 37,700 people, from 2024-2025, the largest drop in the top 20 markets.
Dallas-Ft Worth remains as the top market for relocation with 705,188 people added. It continued to increase the most with 60,400 from 2024-2025, but at a rate slowing from the five-year average at 141,000.
For 2025 to 2030, Placer.Ai predicts that these cities’ populations will increase the most: Austin by 2.01%, Orlando by 1.48%, and of course Dallas by 1.39%.
This prediction for Austin and Dallas is reinforced by U-Haul’s growth study that comes out each year. They reported that these top 10 markets had the most relocations:
1. DALLAS, TX (1)
2. HOUSTON, TX (9)
3. AUSTIN, TX (5)
4. CHARLOTTE, NC (2)
5. PHOENIX, AZ (3)
6. NASHVILLE, TN (6)
7. CHARLESTON, SC (13)
8. RALEIGH, NC (7)
9. ATLANTA, GA
10. BROWNSVILLE & MCALLEN, TX (21)
But is population growth the most important metric to consider? Further, is U-Haul the best predictor? In my 27 years of working in New York, I have rarely seen these trucks.
I would suggest that job growth is a much more important statistic to look at, especially if you’re looking to lease office space or apartments to the gainfully employed. Here you see a much different story:
Top 10 Metro Areas by Net Jobs Added (Sep. 2024 → Sep. 2025) Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics, large metros (1M+ population), not seasonally adjusted
Rank - Metro Area - Net Jobs Added
1 New York–Newark–Jersey City, NY-NJ +85,200
2 Philadelphia–Camden–Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD +44,100
3 Chicago–Naperville–Elgin, IL-IN +40,900
4 Charlotte–Concord–Gastonia, NC-SC +39,700
5 Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington, TX +34,100
6 Houston–Pasadena–The Woodlands, TX +30,700
7 Phoenix–Mesa–Chandler, AZ +27,300
8 Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach, FL +21,900
9 San Antonio–New Braunfels, TX +21,900
10 Los Angeles–Long Beach–Anaheim, CA +20,700
These top job markets should continue to grow if you consider where most job applications are received. According to Handshake, these cities received the most applications from graduating seniors last year:
New York City alone accounted for 15% of all applications across the US, with twice as many applications as Chicago, the next most popular city.
Population shifts should certainly be considered, but job growth should be watched a lot more closely when making real estate investment decisions.