U.S. Investment Sales Are Turning A Corner

The first half of 2025 is complete and the numbers are in. While 2025 hasn’t yet matched the highs of previous cycles, there’s growing evidence that the U.S. investment sales market may be at a meaningful inflection point. Transactional volume is climbing, investor sentiment is improving, and capital is beginning to flow more freely. But how much of this is real momentum and how much is just recovery from a slow start?

Sales Volume: Still Off Peak, But Rising

On the transaction side, the numbers are mixed. 2025 is currently tracking below 2024 on an annualized basis, but Q2 saw a nearly 50% increase over Q1. That’s a strong trajectory, especially considering the lag from election-year uncertainty.

Dollar volume is still well below the 2021 peak of $750 billion, but with several $100 million-plus deals already in contract, there’s optimism for a strong finish. In terms of the first half of 2025, the multifamily sector saw the largest share of dollar volume while the industrial sector saw the largest share of number of sales in the U.S. Multifamily continues to lead in volume with $64.5B in dollar volume (3,046) followed by industrial $45.3B (3,536 sales).

Deal velocity is holding steady, with roughly 24,000 trades so far in 2025 comparable to 2023 and 2024. The number of transactions hasn’t dropped as sharply as dollar volume, suggesting fewer blockbuster deals but consistent market activity.

Office Market Trends: Recovery, Investment Shifts, and Sunbelt Momentum

In June 2025, Avison Young’s office busyness across major U.S. markets showed a steady recovery, with Miami leading at 81.6% of pre-pandemic levels, followed by Manhattan at 77.9%, while San Francisco trailed at 54.3%. The top dozen metro areas including Dallas, New York, and San Francisco accounted for roughly 16.2% of national transaction volume, with Dallas topping the list at $13.5 billion, driven primarily by residential sales. Office investment is surging in San Francisco, New York, and Washington, DC, where private buyers now dominate over 50% of office transactions nearly double their pre-COVID share.

Several Sunbelt markets posted strong year-over-year gains in office activity, with Phoenix, Austin, and Dallas-Ft Worth each exceeding 110% of their June 2024 levels. Denver and Charlotte also saw notable increases, both reaching around 110%.

From Institutions to Individuals: How Private Buyers are reshaping Office and Multifamily Markets

Over the past decade, private buyers have become the dominant force in both office and multifamily real estate markets. In the office sector, private buyers now account for over 50% of transactions in 2025 YTD, nearly doubling their pre-COVID share, while institutional and REIT/listed investors have steadily declined. Similarly, in the multifamily market, private buyers peaked at 64% in 2022, with institutional investors dropping from 35% in 2018 to around 29%.

However, this shift toward private capital has coincided with more fragmented deal sizes and slower transaction velocity. If institutional investors were to regain market share, it could significantly boost overall sales volume, given their capacity for larger, portfolio-level acquisitions and faster deployment of capital. Their return would not only signal renewed confidence in the sector but could also catalyze broader market liquidity and pricing stability.

So, Is This a Turning Point?

The data suggests that while we’re not back to peak levels, the market is moving in the right direction. Capital is flowing, fundraising is up, and deal volume is climbing. But as with any cycle, macroeconomic factors like treasury rates and global trade will ultimately determine how far this momentum carries.

Just as we saw in New York City’s mayoral impact on CRE values, leadership and policy matter but they’re only part of the equation. In real estate, it’s cap rates and rent growth that drive value. And right now, both are showing signs of strength.